Kucinich Strongest Against Bush
The "40/40/20" Analysis of 2000 Exit Poll Data Proves Why

Daniel Brown

[The following analysis was posted to the Kucinich4President Yahoo! Group Discussion as Comment No. 18483 on Dec. 30, 2003, by John B. Flores]


Much is being made of the "electability" (directly resulting from money raised among activists) of Dean and Clark, but the fact is that progressives ("lefties") hold the cards this election they will determine the outcome, one way or the other. Read the basis for this conclusion in "History and the Rise of Progressive Electoral Power Make Kucinich a Contender."

Democrats, despite the sway of the power of money driving the nomination process so far, have overshot their bell curve peak to the "right." Democrats are misjudging a "core" that lies further to the "left" than they're willing to admit or that we're allowed to understand - using the rule election analysts call the 40/40/20 rule, it's obvious that the nominee who captures the "Nader" voters along with the real Democratic core will be the only candidate who will beat Bush by greater than the Black Box (and electoral vote shift) margin. That analysis can be found in "Where the Votes Are."

What the analysis of progressive power in Democratic politics shows is that not only is Kucinich electable, he's our best chance to beat the unelected fraud and keep him from ever getting his first legitimate term of office.

Amazingly, people who in most other scenarios would consider themselves activists who will fight to the end - to take back the media, for campaign reform, to protect ANWR - seem suddenly and uncharacteristically willing to surrender now and settle so early in the nomination process. Anyone who thinks they resonate with Kucinich should stick with him to the convention - why not stick with the best, the real anti-Bush? Progressives seem to be selling themselves short this time around, willing to throw up their hands and surrender before they've even begun to fight, just like in this short story, The Brainwashed Woman and the New Dawn.

And now, an analysis of the 2000 Election exit polling data confirms what the 40/40/20 analysis determined Democrats will be strongest running the most progressive candidate they can find.

We start with the source of the exit polling data from VNS, found at: http://www.udel.edu/poscir/road/course/exitpollsindex.html

Summary: This data clearly legitimizes the conclusions made through the 40/40/20 rule to analyze the current electorate, and its likely prospective effect on the 2004 election.

The graphs says, that of the 13157 people polled:

39% self-identified as Democrats.
35% self-identified as Republicans.
27% self-identified as Independents.

(Not far off from the general framework of the 40/40/20 rule.)

Of the "independents":
45% voted for Gore.
47% voted for Bush.

(Roughly half each, as the 40/40/20 analysis determined would be the case.)

However, as it related to Nader:
2% of self-identified Democrats voted for Nader.
1% of self-identified Republicans voted for Nader.
6% of self-identified independents voted for Nader.

If we project these percentages to the 2000 election numbers, they tell us that:

There were 40,560,000 Democratic votes available. (The 40/40/20 analysis used "40 million") 104m X 39%

There were 36,400,000 Republican votes available. (Wow, even weaker than the 40/40/20 analysis projected - again, it used "40 million") 104m X 35%

Nader got 811,200 Democratic votes. 40.56m X 2%
Nader got 364,000 Republican votes. 36.4m X 1%
Nader got 1,684,8000 "independent" votes. 28.08m X 6%

(Not far from his total take of about 3 million in 2000, so it looks right so far)

Luckily, the "vote by ideology" numbers, while not saying the same thing they would be if they were broken down by affiliation, are perfect for analyzing the "bell curve" of each side's vote.

First of all, "moderate" used by a Bush voter means something different than "moderate" used by a Gore voter (as it's seen from the perspective of the candidate who got that persons's vote), so for this analysis each term is seen as being used in relation to the vote cast.

So, projected to the numbers, the total looks like this:

20,800,000 self-identified "liberals"
52,000,000 self-identified "moderates"
30,160,000 self-identified "conservative"

But much more telling is the bell curve in the Gore total:

Gore got 16,640,000 liberal votes.
Gore got 27,040,000 moderate votes.
Gore got 5,127,200 conservative votes.

Nader got 1,248,000 liberal votes.
Nader got 1,040,000 moderate votes.
Nader got 51,272 conservative votes.

In the bell curve analysis following the 40/40/20 rule strictly, Gore got "40 million" core/moderate votes (these would be people who in the above example self-identified as closely related to what they thought the "middle" would be), and then under the 40/40/20 rule (splitting the "20%" between Bush and Gore and then again to form the sides of the bell curve) he was determined to have gotten 5 million votes from people who thought he should be more "conservative" and 5 million from people who thought he should be more "liberal."

Thus the 40/40/20 rule determined the "shape" of the bell curve to be 80% center, and 10% on each side, but the numbers from the exit polling data present an even more shocking conclusion - the bell curve is even flatter and even more sloped to the "left" than the 40/40/20 rule was able to discern!

While the number of self-identified "Democrats" in the exit poll isn't far off the mark from where the 40/40/20 rule proposed it would be (and Bush and Gore both split each other's take, cancelling out each other's affiliation vote), the ideology numbers in the Gore column are really telling.

Fully 35% of Gore's voters identified themselves as to the "left" of the "core" as indicated by self-identification as "liberal" in the question of ideology - relative to vote cast.

The 40/40/20 rule projected that only 5 million, or 10%, of Gore's take voted for him wishing he were more "liberal or populist."

Only 55% of Gore's voters equated themselves with the "core" if by that is meant "moderate" (again, relative to vote cast).

But in the 40/40/20 rule analysis, the "core" or "center" of the bell curve was worth 80% - the bell curve is clearly much flatter than the 40/40/20 analysis alone was able to pick up.

Only, and most importantly, in the tally of the "conservatives" was the 40/40/20 analysis practically spot on. Exit polls show that about 5 million voted for Gore wishing he were more "conservative" and that's almost exactly what the 40/40/20 analysis predicted would be the case.

The 40/40/20 analysis, determining Kucinich as the strongest candidate, supposed that Kucinich would get all Nader's voters.

But from the above numbers, let's shave off the "conservatives" for Nader - if Kucinich takes the 2,228,000 "liberal" and "moderate" Nader voters (remember, the 40/40/20 analysis said 3 million), then Kucinich is almost exactly where the analysis said he'd be.

And the exit polling numbers put 5.1 million votes into the "conservative voted for Gore" pile - these are the votes that people say are the "at-risk" voters who wished Gore were more "conservative."

So Kucinich turns out to be almost exactly where the 40/40/20 rule analysis said he'd be - gaining about 3 million (exit poll = 2.3 million), and making the battle with Bush entirely a battle for 5 million previous Gore voters (exit poll = 5.1 million).

All-in-all, this data provides an explicit proof of the conclusions from the 40/40/20 rule analysis:

1. The "progressive" bell curve is flatter and more sloped to the "left" than the DLC and the "centrist conservative" Democratic candidates want us to believe, and

2. Kucinich is still the candidate positioned best to pick up Nader's votes and therefore is the ONLY candidate who can make the fight against Bush entirely a battle for 5 million previous Gore voters - not needing ANY previous Bush voters to beat Bush decisively.

Want to win? Nominate Kucinich.

Dan Brown
Saint Paul, Minnesota